The Perfect Storm Warning

While it may appear that we are cresting this current wave, that is not the case. There are two factors that are interacting to create that illusion. The minor one is a weekly wave that is readily apparent in almost any graph of the data (see the large green dot to the furthest right on any graph below). The other one is much stronger, and only became apparent after looking at it in many different ways (see the two yellow dots on each graph). The larger one has a period that increases by about 4 days each cycle.

Both of them are at the bottom of their valleys between 7/7 and 7/9. This is why it looks like cases are decreasing in the US right now. That will continue through 7/9 as the weekly cycle pushes cases back up and peaks on 7/11. That should put the US close to a 60,000 case day after which they will decline again as the weekly cycle declines.

The impact of the depression of the larger cycle will begin to fade and a large surge in cases will follow. This will be worsened by the relaxation of social restrictions around the country combined with the impact of the July 4th weekend starting which will become evident on July 25th as an unbelievable rise in cases as the larger cycle crests on July 31st. The weekly cycle also will be peaking on the 29th, so the end of the month is going to have more cases than is even imaginable. That will result in any hospital systems that haven’t been completely overwhelmed and implementing crisis standards of care already to reach that point by mid August.

In many places around the US getting infected now will put people at risk of not receiving hospitalization if necessary given the lag from infection to hospitalization. That will be true everywhere in the country in the near future and includes hospitalization for things that are not COVID-19 related.

I urge anyone who had social contact with people outside of their immediate household recently to self-quarantine for two weeks to help limit the spread.

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