The Illusion is Over by State

I’ve previously described how we have been benefiting from reduced cases and thereby reduced deaths because of the social restrictions enacted by various states. As these restrictions were relaxed, I indicated we would see an alarming rise in deaths the first week of July.

It previously appeared that there was about a week delay from cases to death when looking at the national data. However, when looking at each state individually, it’s clear that some are reporting deaths relatively concurrently and some lag by up to four weeks.

The methodology is described in a previous post. This will simply be a series of graphs (with some commentary at times) of the predictive value of using case numbers to predict deaths from COVID-19. Deaths (red) are shifted one week to the left to make it easier to see how they cases and deaths align.

There is exponential community spread occurring in many states throughout the US. Avoid contact with those outside of your immediate household unless absolutely necessary and protect yourself if you do.

This is not over. It’s only getting started.

STAY HOME

It appears that deaths are entered as batches, roughly monthly.

1-2 week lag