The Illusion is Over by State

I’ve previously described how we have been benefiting from reduced cases and thereby reduced deaths because of the social restrictions enacted by various states. As these restrictions were relaxed, I indicated we would see an alarming rise in deaths the first week of July.

It previously appeared that there was about a week delay from cases to death when looking at the national data. However, when looking at each state individually, it’s clear that some are reporting deaths relatively concurrently and some lag by up to four weeks.

The methodology is described in a previous post. This will simply be a series of graphs (with some commentary at times) of the predictive value of using case numbers to predict deaths from COVID-19. Deaths (red) are shifted one week to the left to make it easier to see how they cases and deaths align.

There is exponential community spread occurring in many states throughout the US. Avoid contact with those outside of your immediate household unless absolutely necessary and protect yourself if you do.

This is not over. It’s only getting started.

STAY HOME

As a whole, the US has about a 2 week lag in reporting deaths.
2 week lag.
1 week lag
2 week lag
2 week lag
California is one of the states where testing may account for some of the increase in cases, although there is a 2-3 week lag.
2 week lag
1 week lag
2 week lag
1-2 week lag
Florida is also likely being impacted by increased testing because people are in fear after seeing hospital systems getting overwhelmed. Reporting deaths lags 1-3 weeks.
2-3 week lag.
2-3 week lag.
Idaho started testing after death began. 1-3 week lag.
2 week lag
1-2 week lag
2-3 week lag
2 week lag
3 week lag
3 week lag
2 week lag
2 week lag
2 week lag
2-3 week lag
2 week lag

It appears that deaths are entered as batches, roughly monthly.

2-3 week lag
2 week lag
Concurrent
Testing and 1-2 week lag
Concurrent
New Jersey is an unusual situation. They were likely not adequately reporting COVID-19 deaths when they assessed excess deaths. They fixed the data which accounts for the large, steep spike.

Two week lag (plus prior underreporting).
1-2 week lag
Concurrent
2 week lag
3 week lag
Possibly testing and 2 week lag
3 week lag
Concurrent
1-2 week lag
Puerto Rico has a unique feature. There is a sharp point around June 10th. Normally these crests are rounded, which makes me wonder if they had a mass testing day, but I couldn’t find anything related to that when I searched.

Concurrent to 1 week lag.
1-2 week lag
Testing likely accounts for some of the increase in cases in South Carolina.

One week lag
4 week lag
3 week lag
Testing probably plays a partial role in increasing cases.

2 week lag
2 week lag
2 week lag
Concurrent

1-2 week lag

2 week lag
1 week lag
2-3 week lag

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