Monthly Archives: October 2021

Respirators and Aerosol Transmission

A N95 respirator mask. (Robin Lubbock/WBUR)

I’ve commented in some of my posts here, on Facebook, and Twitter that we should be treating SARS-CoV-2 as a virus that is spread through both the airborne and droplet route and provided some primary literature to support that assessment. The distinction between the two has been treated as an almost binary relationship when in fact, they occur along a continuum. A number of different factors, both related to the person who is spreading it, but also to the local environment, determine which might be the more dominant form of spread in that area. These can be things such as viral load, point of infection, activity of the person who is infected, air changes per hour, humidity, etc. This should not be considered a completely list, but just a representative one. In addition, I have previously commented that we should not have eased up on the recommendations for mask use.

I came across a thread by an infectious disease physician on Twitter today that nicely summarizes everything I’ve been saying, but pulled it all together in one place. I asked her permission if I could post it year and she graciously agreed. Thank you Denise Dewald, MD.

“PSA: DO NOT TAKE YOUR MASK OFF INDOORS, even if there is no one else around.

The virus persists in the air for HOURS because #CovidIsAirborne Only take your mask off outdoors, and preferably use an N95 mask.

Aerosols that carry the virus can float in the air for HOURS. Long after an infected person has left the room, the air is still not safe to breathe, unless there is aggressive ventilation and filtration to keep it safe. Just because you are alone does not mean you are safe.

Do not take your mask off inside, even if you are alone. It’s not safe for you. And if you are infected, you will be making the air unsafe for others. Read on to understand this more fully.

Aerosols are tiny droplets produced in your respiratory tract during breathing, speaking, etc. Viruses attach to them, and this is how COVID is spread The virus is not free-floating in the air, so all the anti-maskers who say masks *can’t* work don’t understand the science. 4/n

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The ones produced by breathing are the smallest. Small aerosols are most likely to persist in the environment and most likely to make it to the smallest of another person’s airways. Quiet breathing produces smaller amounts than other expiratory activities.

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Talking produces a lot more aerosols that are larger, as well as droplets. These can quickly evaporate down to small aerosols in dry air. Masks help to contain the large aerosols and prevent this. Small aerosols are really bad because they can penetrate the lungs deeply.

If virus makes it to the smallest of your airways, it is more likely to cause severe disease. Virus that lands in your nasal passages is less likely to cause severe disease, and it will take more virus there to get you sick.

The more virus that gets to your lungs, the worse off you will likely be. You really want to avoid getting the virus deep down into your lungs.

N95 masks filter out these small infectious aerosols that carry the virus. Simple facemasks do not do this well because of leaks. Wear an N95 or the roughly equivalent FFP2, KF94, KN95, ASTM3. It’s critical to have good seal to the face.

What about taking my mask off in my personal office space? You might ask Don’t do it unless you know that the air in your office is not recirculated with air from other parts of the building. Recirculated air is chock full of other people’s aerosols.

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How do you know that? Ideally talk with the building engineer. High ventilation can make a big difference by diluting out the aerosols with fresh air. (WHO recommends a ventilation rate of 10 liters per second per person). CO2 detectors can help.

Aerosols can easily spread through air ducts. SARS spread via the air ducts and defective sewage traps, leading to a large outbreak in an apartment building in Hong Kong. Buildings need to be designed better for better health and future pandemics.

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Now for toilet plumes. Lidless toilets in public bathrooms contaminate the air and all surfaces with feces and virus. We need serious mitigation here. So for God’s sake, DO NOT EVER TAKE YOUR MASK OFF IN THE BATHROOM.

Recirculated air is an aerosol orge, where everyone’s lungs are bathing in everyone else’s aerosols. Practice safe breathing in the time of COVID. Avoid pulmonary promiscuity. Don’t let other people’s aerosols into your lungs, unless they are in your bubble.

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Special message to educators: Do not take off your mask to eat lunch in your classroom! Do not take your mask off before or after class And most of all, do not take your mask off to speak This is for your safety, and the safety of your students.

Eat lunch outside or in your car. Avoid being downwind of other people. Maintain at least 6’ distance outside. Do not eat inside. It is too hard to know if the inside air is truly safe. We need to break the chain of transmission.

Many figures are from this review article on the airborne spread of disease. This should be required reading for all people in public health, infectious disease, hospital infection control, school superintendents, architects, and HVAC engineers.”

Thank you again Dr. Dewald.

I would also like to add that should we come up against supply chain shortages and face a respirator shortage, I am one of the coauthors to guidelines on respirator reuse. These may become helpful at some point.

Read This

This is really worth reading. It stands on its own without my commentary. That’s rare.

The Road to Hitler is Paved with… Masks and Vaccines?

The Next Surge

Think of vaccines and various non-pharmaceutical interventions as surge protectors that protect healthcare as well as economic and political stability. Unfortunately, many Americans seem to disregard these measures and overload the system, putting all of us at risk.

People have asked me why I think October will see another climb in cases. The main reasons are due to the final pushes toward summer travel (especially Labor Day weekend) and the opening of schools. In addition, as fall settles in, people tend to be indoors together much more. Lower humidity will also drive more airborne spread as opposed to droplet spread of the virus. The big piece though is that a number of people seem to live under the false notion that this is done.

I had to go into a big box hardware store this week. I generally have done everything curbside but needed a key made. I had my N95 mask on when I went in, but was dismayed at how few people were wearing masks or just had them on around their necks (employees). I’ve heard similar stories about the behavior of the public from others I know. That behavior will contribute as well, whether it’s due to the discounting of the reality of the pandemic or pandemic fatigue among those who do understand the facts.

While some may think that we should be in much better shape this year compared to last year, I don’t think that is the case at all. While vaccines certainly help reduce the spread and severity, we simply do not have enough people vaccinated in this country to make that effect work for the population as a whole.

The other piece is that we were dealing with alpha last year, this year we are dealing with delta, which has a much higher transmission rate.

I think a year over year comparison is worth making, since many of the societal forces that drive transmission show up in these numbers.

First, look at cases each year. There is some concordance between the peaks. It’s a bit harder to know if there are similar factors driving the ones in early spring since that is when SARS-CoV-2 first emerged in the US. That is why I’m relying on my rationale I’ve already described.

The other thing I’ve puzzled over is the cause of the delay during the summer this year. I’m beginning to think that is a result of an incomplete sample of cases in many states. Some simply aren’t testing children as much as they had last year. That’s a complete disservice to the public because it delays the implementation of public health interventions, much in the same way that Florida only provides data once per week. That’s part of the reason why I waited to write this today instead of earlier this week. It wouldn’t have painted a very accurate picture with an entire state excluded.

There are a couple of other important things to note when comparing cases year to year. First, look at how the peaks more than doubled that of last year and that the baseline valleys are much higher. Those baselines are very important when it comes to exponential spread of a disease. That’s a big part of why influenza was so minimal last year. High influenza vaccination rates combined with mask use and other non-pharmaceutical interventions prevented influenza from gaining a foothold.

It’s also important to think about positivity rates in relation to cases every time that cases are assessed. It helps answer the question of whether the prevalence in a community is truly rising or falling or if it is just an artifact of more or less testing. This data is easy to find for every state from Johns Hopkins.

You can see in both graphs that the recent rate of the downward trend in case number and positivity is slowing. That is part of the reason that I have used a three-week slope to assess the rate of change in case increases or decreases. Oddly enough, this graph had the current slope well below zero until I added the last two days of data. Now, the slope is just hitting the X-axis at zero, indicating either we are reaching a flat plateau, or in my opinion, we will see cases climbing very obviously again in the next week or so. If I’m right, especially if case numbers more than double that of last year, we are in for a world of hurt. Much of the country will need to implement crisis standards of care. This is what I’ve really wanted to avoid and why I labored so hard writing and sharing across platforms.

The interest rate on our actions is insanely high and our next payment is coming due. I think it’s going to bankrupt us in a number of ways.