Monthly Archives: December 2024

I made a statement yesterday on Twitter in response to the plane crash yesterday in South Korea.

While it is possible that a bird strike was the root cause and destroyed avionics, there are a few remaining questions. “‘At this point there are a lot more questions than we have answers. Why was the plane going so fast? Why were the flaps not open? Why was the landing gear not down?’ said Gregory Alegi, an aviation expert and former teacher at Italy’s air force academy.” Normally, a flight would circle and jettison fuel as to reduce the risk of explosion and fire, which also allows the airport the 20 minutes needed to deploy fire retardant foam and nets. This may have been skipped though if the strike led to fire or toxic fumes in the cabin

“Joo Jong-wan, a director at the transport ministry, said during a briefing, ‘Typically, engine failure and landing gear failure are not directly linked. Even if the landing gear doesn’t deploy automatically, there are manual overrides. The exact cause will need to be determined through an analysis of the flight data recorder.'”

The aircraft made one go around after the initial attempt at landing. On the second attempt, it contacted the runway at about the halfway point, which left no space for the aircraft to skid to a stop before the end of the runway. That raises another question as to why it didn’t land at the beginning of the runway.

This all could be bad luck that couldn’t be avoided. However, there is plenty of evidence of that COVID may interfere with transportation safety.

Aviation incidents are relatively rare, although it does seem like there have been many more the past few years. However, motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) provide us with a much larger data set that provides clues and make a good surrogate measure.

Aside from that, we already have evidence from aviation. Military Pilots Reported 1,700% More Medical Incidents During the Pandemic. The Pentagon Says They Just Had COVID.

Other research of concern has to do with brainwave patterns on EEGs. These changes were associated with concentration problems, fatigue, and reduced mental resilience, which could affect their ability to perform high-stakes tasks.

MVAs

First, we already know that other infections can increase MVA risks. “The result…suggests that subjects with latent toxoplasmosis had a 2.65 (C.I.95= 1.76–4.01) times higher risk of a traffic accident than the toxoplasmosis-negative subjects.”

This is MVA fatality rates. As you can see in every metric, they have been overall falling for some time. (Data source). That trend has a lot to do with both vehicle and roadway safety devices. Those have made the highways safer, so much of this is related to driver behavior.

The rate of decline as a population rate slowed in the 1990s, paralleling widespread adoption of cell phones and the subsequent distracted driving. A clear upward jump occurred in 2020.

It’s hard to distinguish what happened though related to the rates among the number of motor vehicles and miles driven due to the very high rates in the past. Zooming into that data shows the same increases in 2020, and the lowest points for both are higher than the peaks for the prior 10 years.

Earlier this year, I had used this data to look at rates in another way.

The black line is road miles, the light blue is air miles, and the red is MVA deaths per 100,000 population per 100,000 miles. The orange line is simply to make it easy to look at the year 2020 on all three. The drop in air and road miles is expected, but the big jump in mortality is telling.

Some may try to argue that the lockdowns resulted in more speeding on empty roads, but the data does not support this as a cause of MVA deaths since the easing of restrictions.

Now the highways are congested again, but the mortality hasn’t dropped. It’s another argument that COVID is driving up MVAs. It’s not just the mortality rate going up in 2020, but it should have stayed steady or more likely have gone down with less vehicles on the road.

There is also science to support the impacts of COVID on driver safety and behavior. de Paula et al have a study that supports this.

“We observed significant cognitive impairment only in the ROCF, a drawing task test used to assess visuospatial abilities, executive functions and memory. The deficits observed in the ROCF could not be explained by socio-demographic factors, ophthalmologic deficits or psychiatric symptoms, suggesting cognitive deficit secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Other factors which may influence performance, such as motor coordination, spatial neglect, visual attention, semantic knowledge, intelligence and executive functions were not likely to explain the observed difficulties…

…Visuoconstructive deficits are usually defined as an atypical difficulty in using visual and spatial information to GUIDE COMPLEX BEHAVIORS like drawing, assembling objects or organizing multiple pieces of a more sophisticated stimuli…

…the PT must organize visual and spatial information in a planned manner…a processes that demand several more specific cognitive abilities related to PERCEIVING, PROCESSING, STORING, AND RECALLING VISUOSPATIAL INFORMATION, both regarding shape and position.”

“According to several traffic experts I spoke with, the explanation for the 2020 fatality spike is relatively straightforward: With fewer cars on the road during quarantine, traffic congestion was all but eliminated, which emboldened people to drive at lethal speeds…But why has the surge persisted and worsened this year, even as traffic has been picking back up and nearing pre-Covid-19 levels?”

It’s also a problem in other countries as well. However, look how much better the data looks AFTER the US is extracted from it. That’s not surprising given how poorly the US handled the pandemic.

Air travel is significantly safer than road travel, which makes it much harder to tease out data. This should make a pretty good argument that some of what we have been seeing with aircraft incidents stemming from pilot, mechanic, or air traffic controller error could easily be due to the impact of COVID on the brain. I have a number of studies on the neurological impacts of COVID here.

Addendum

Someone sent me a link to a brief study that says it all.

“Findings indicate an association between acute COVID-19 rates and increased car crashes with an OR of 1.5 (1.23-1.26 95%CI)…The OR of car crashes associated with COVID-19 was comparable to driving under the influence of alcohol at legal limits or driving with a seizure disorder…The study suggests that acute COVID-19, regardless of Long COVID status, is linked to an increased risk of car crashes presumably due to neurologic changes caused by SARS-CoV-2.”

I also have found some interesting data on road rage as well as hit and run.

Other stories:

https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/01/30/covid-brain-fog-likely-factor-in-trains-near-miss/

The data has become quite clear that the safety of our food supply has been endangered because of COVID. This is the number of FDA food recalls each month.

There was an average of 3.7 recalls per month prior to August 2021, which is when the problem became an obvious permanent feature of our food supply system. This could easily be due to the brain fog, bad decisions, and risk-taking behavior driven by COVID infections. Since that time, the numbers have increased to 24.6 per month.

This problem is likely to worsen with the new administration. “We can expect ‘deregulation, lax enforcement, reduced oversight and de-emphasization or even denial of certain frameworks.'”

That will be further compounded by the push to deport undocumented immigrants. 42% of farm workers in the US are undocumented, and that estimate is as high as 75% in California. The state provides over 30% of the country’s vegetables and over 75% of the fruits and nuts. These percentages are even higher during the winter.

What happens when the agricultural labor force is reduced? Shortcuts get taken and remaining workers become overburdened in an already difficult job, potentially coming to work when ill to maintain their employment. This can increase the risk to the food supply directly if a worker has an infection spread via the fecal-oral route of transmission, such as norovirus or cryptosporidium.

It seems a pretty safe bet that we can expect higher risk food at higher prices.

There is plenty to be said about the picks of the 47 administration, but I’ll stick to just the ones that are in my lane.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services

Anti-Vaccine Rhetoric

Kennedy has promoted the scientifically discredited belief that childhood vaccines cause autism.

• Debunked Study: The initial study that suggested a link between vaccines and autism was published in 1998. This study was later retracted due to serious flaws and ethical violations. The author, Andrew Wakefield, lost his medical license.
• Large-Scale Studies: Numerous large-scale studies have found no link between vaccines and autism. For example, a study published in JAMA in 2015 analyzed the health records of over 95,000 children and found no increased risk of autism associated with the MMR vaccine.
• CDC Findings: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has conducted multiple studies that found no association between vaccines and autism. These studies also found no link between thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative used in some vaccines, and autism.
• Meta-Analysis: A meta-analysis of ten studies involving more than 1.2 million children reaffirmed that vaccines do not cause autism. In fact, immunization was associated with a decreased risk of developing autism.

The overwhelming consensus in the scientific community is that vaccines are safe and do not cause autism.

He questioned the safety of COVID-19 vaccines and made misleading claims about vaccine testing.

Controversial Statements: He has invoked Hitler and Nazi Germany when speaking out against vaccine mandates and using a metaphor that vaccinating children is like sex abuse in the Catholic church. Not only is that minimizing the impact of the harm from sexual abuse, but also minimizes the horrors of the Holocaust.

Misinformation: Kennedy has spread various conspiracy theories, including false claims about the origins of HIV and the safety of vaccines.

Personal Scandals: He has admitted to bizarre incidents, such as dumping a dead bear cub in Central Park, cutting the head off of a whale and taking it on the roof of his car, and has been accused of engaging in an online relationship with a political reporter despite being married. I visited the carcass of a dead whale two weeks ago and had ZERO desire to cut off its head, much less to take it somewhere on the roof of my car.

It’s pretty clear that all of this is a revenue and political scheme for him. Without those motives, most people would think he needs some professional help. He’s definitely not worthy of this position. Trump talked today about wanting RFK Jr. to investigate autism further, in spite of how much it has been studied. Even when given the information that the increase has to do with better detection, he still deflected, and even went as far as saying maybe chlorine in the water is causing it. It wasn’t that long ago that Trump was talking about injecting bleach for COVID. I can’t believe he is going to be in office again.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya for the National Institutes of Health (NIH)

Bhattacharya is a professor of health policy at Stanford University and a proponent of natural immunity through infection.

Great Barrington Declaration: Bhattacharya co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD), which opposed lockdowns and advocated for “focused protection” of vulnerable populations. This stance was criticized by many public health experts who argued that it underestimated the risks of COVID-19 and could lead to higher mortality rates. There are many problems with the GBD.

• Unrealistic Assumptions: The declaration assumes that “focused protection” of vulnerable populations is feasible. In reality, it is extremely difficult to isolate vulnerable individuals completely from the rest of the population.
• Herd Immunity Misconception: It promotes the idea of achieving herd immunity through natural infection, which is risky and could lead to a high number of deaths and long-term health issues. The idea of getting a vascular disease known to cause damage to every organ system to provide immunity to that disease is insanity, especially when it would require repeat infections.
• Lack of Long-Term Immunity: The declaration does not account for the fact that immunity from natural infection may not be long-lasting, especially with the emergence of new variants. We knew this would not work very early in the pandemic due to the events that unfolded in Manaus, Brazil.
• Ethical Concerns: Many experts argue that allowing the virus to spread unchecked among the young and healthy is unethical and could overwhelm healthcare systems. Ethicists in the future will be reviewing this era as a case study around the notion of harming children to protect society.
  • “The true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its most vulnerable members.” – Mahatma Gandhi
• Public Health Impact: The declaration undermines public health measures such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and vaccination, which are proven to reduce the spread of the virus. Problems with the GBD are thoroughly covered by Dr. Jonathan Howard in an episode of his excellent podcast titled “The Great Barrington Declaration’s Doomed Herd Immunity Plan.”

Criticism of Lockdowns and Mask Mandates: Bhattacharya has been vocal against lockdowns and mask mandates, which put him at odds with many public health officials. His testimony in a Tennessee school mask mandate case was described as “troubling and problematic” by the judge. Imagine how bad things would have been during the delta and original omicron waves if these interventions would not have been in place.

Social Media Censorship: His views on COVID-19 policies led to his Twitter account being placed on a “Trends Blacklist” to prevent his tweets from appearing in trending topics.

Lack of Leadership Experience: Critics have pointed out that Bhattacharya lacks leadership experience in government or large organizations, which raises concerns about his ability to lead the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

He also supports letting 25% of the population die of disease, such as during the plague of Athens.

Dr. David Weldon for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Weldon is a former U.S. Representative and has a history of opposing vaccines, including claiming that thimerosal causes autism, which has been debunked long ago. He was in Congress from 1995-2009, so there’s a pretty good chance that he didn’t stay very current on medicine during that time, although he returned to private practice.

He is an internal medicine physician whose “interests include the management of hypertension, elevated cholesterol, diabetes, arthritis, cancer screening, preventive care and general illnesses of the elderly.” He lacks any specific skills in public health, infectious diseases, or epidemiology, which are core to leading the CDC. He’s likely to follow the antivaccine agenda of RFK Jr. closely.

Dr. Mehmet Oz (Dr. Oz) for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)

Mehmet Oz was likely a good cardiothoracic surgeon, but his troubles started when he was to kick off the 83rd annual American Association for Thoracic Surgery (AATS) conference. His presentation was based on a flawed study design and he was banned from speaking at the conference or publishing in their journal for two years.

He promotes and sells supplements though TV and other media channels, often without disclosing his financial ties. Typically, the supplement market is filled with grifters selling the modern version of snake oil and is unregulated. Even his colleagues think he is a quack, notable among them, Dr. Scott Atlas, who was a special advisor under Trump related to COVID, and a quack in his own regard.

Dr. Marty Makary for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner

Makary is a COVID misinformation spreader. Some examples include the effectiveness of masks, the risk of myocarditis from vaccines, and the benefits of natural immunity. He argued that the US would reach herd immunity by April 2021, hence opposing vaccine mandates, lockdowns, and universal masking. He seems to be part of the club that wants children diseased or dead.

There is plenty more to be found about Makary at Science Based Medicine. He is in no way suited to lead a government health agency.

We are in serious trouble with these five.