First, this has to be one of the dumbest terms ever spread by the antivax conspiracy theorists. There is no such thing. You can’t find a reputable oncologist that would ever use such a term. It’s an old trope going back to the origins of the polio vaccine.
I had planned to write more about on this topic, but it had been covered very well over at Science-Based Medicine, but I want to tackle it separately a bit as well.
One of the reasons that cancer may appear to be increasing is simply because the antivax community is looking for stories to fit their confirmation bias. In fact, cancer rate data lags quite a bit, so there is very little data for 2020 onward on a national level.
One factor that could contribute to the perceived increase is due to closure of clinics at the very beginning of the pandemic as well as reluctance of people to seek medical care, especially before vaccines became available. That has two impacts.
First, this would lead to decreased screening, which would lower detection at the onset of the pandemic. If people are trying to use data just since the start of the pandemic, it would appear that cancer rates are rising just because some of that screening activity is catching up.
Second, this same delay in screening would also mean that cancers would have progressed into higher stages before detection. That could easily lead to higher cancer mortality.
There is a population component that most people likely overlook. Most people recognize that most types of cancer are diseases of later life. (To see other countries and metrics on this data, go here).
First, one needs to understand population pyramids. This video provides a good overview of how they work using the population from France.
Now, keeping the graph of how cancer rates increase with age and how population pyramids work, look at this video of the US population pyramid over time. It is very easy to see the glut of baby boomers making the population pyramid more top heavy. That also means that simply due to a matter of an increasing older population, cancer rates will go up.
Since the claims of an increase in cancer due to vaccines is false, is there something else that what will likely be sharp increases in cancer diagnoses besides what has been mentioned above?
The COVIDephant in the Room
Some small studies have been done though to compare prior to the pandemic versus after the start. For example, the Miami Cancer institute looked at breast cancer 22 months before and after the start. They found that “there was a statistically significant increase (+4.24%) between the number of patients diagnosed and staged with clinical stage T2 (ie, larger tumors). There was also a statistically significant decrease (–2.21%) in the number of patients diagnosed and staged with pathological stage 2 (ie, at an earlier stage).” This aligns with what I stated earlier about delayed screening causing cancer to be further progressed on diagnosis.
COVID can make a cancer that is already present even worse, such as in a study by Nguyen et al. They found that breast cancer can become more invasive, proliferate more, become more able to renew itself, and promote metastasis “Our findings suggested an increased risk of poor outcomes in breast cancer patients following SARS-CoV-2 infection, which should be noted while caring for cancer patients with COVID-19.”
More evidence is accumulating that COVID is likely to drive oncogenesis.
One mechanism that drives cancer formation is related to changes in chromatin, the DNA and proteins that compose the chromosomes in the nucleus of cells. Changes in chromatin structure can affect gene expression and lead to cancer. For example, modifications to histone proteins or DNA methylation can alter the accessibility of DNA to transcription machinery, leading to abnormal gene expression. These changes can result in uncontrolled cell growth and cancer development.
A 2024 paper by Wang et al highlights recent advances in understanding chromosome organization and how alterations in chromatin structure can drive tumorigenesis. The authors review sequence-based methods and in situ approaches to capture information on chromatin looping, topological domains, and larger chromatin compartments. They also explore single-molecule imaging techniques that reveal cell-to-cell chromatin structural variation.
There is sufficient evidence that changes in the structure of chromatin can drive oncogenesis. The question then is if SARS-CoV-2 can strange the structure of the chromatin within human cells.
A 2023 study by Wang et al uses high-throughput chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C) techniques to show that the virus can restructure chromatin architecture, affecting transcription, DNA replication, and cell differentiation. That’s about as simple as one can make it.
That provides one very clear mechanism for oncogenesis from a COVID infection, but there are others as well. Here’s a quick summary of four studies published recently from oldest to newest.
2023 Should We Expect an Increase in the Number of Cancer Cases in People with Long COVID?
The authors explore the potential link between Long COVID and an increased risk of cancer. They review current evidence and discuss possible mechanisms by which Long COVID could contribute to cancer development, such as chronic inflammation and immune system dysregulation.
2023 Causal effects of COVID-19 on cancer risk: A Mendelian randomization study
This study is particularly interesting in that it has already identified an almost triple increase in risk of stomach cancer (OR [95% CI] = 2.8563 [1.4747–5.5323]; p-value = 0.0019). The reason this stands out is because we are still very early into some of the chronic disease impacts, particularly cancer, as a result of COVID infection (more on that shortly). More importantly, there has been evidence of the persistence of the virus in the GI tract. In one study, the authors concluded “Gut mucosal tissues can act as a long-term reservoir for SARS-CoV-2, retaining viral particles for months following the primary COVID-19 infection. Smokers and individuals with diabetes may be at an increased risk of persistent viral gut infection.“
2023 Possible cancer-causing capacity of COVID-19: Is SARS-CoV-2 an oncogenic agent?
This study looks at a number of mechanisms for different types of cancer driven by SARS-CoV-2. These authors use language very similar to what I have been saying throughout the pandemic. “One of the most worrying long-term effects of infection is the potential to induce malignant neoplasms, which will be a major health concern over the coming decades. SARS-CoV-2 infection affects many mechanisms that play a crucial role in cancer onset and progression including cell cycle regulation, the RAAS system and inflammation/proliferation signaling pathways.”
2024 Oncogenic potential of SARS-CoV-2—targeting hallmarks of cancer pathways
This is another paper that looks at different mechanisms for infection-driven oncogenesis, but there is a very important point made. Unlike classical oncogenic viruses, SARS-CoV-2 does not transform cells through viral oncogenes but instead affects cellular processes that can lead to cancer. That kind of circles back to the false claims around “turbo cancer” and the idea that the vaccine alters genes. It does neither, but a COVID infection can.
Finally, people hear me talking about how the bill will start coming due around 2030 for our lack of mitigation activity. I had AI create a table for the timelines of the development of different types of cancer that will make sense as opposed to using the technical terms. These vary based on lifestyle and other risk factors, but it should give a sense of why I have picked 2030.
| Type of Cancer | Average Development Time |
|---|---|
| Breast Cancer | 5-10 years |
| Lung Cancer | 10-20 years |
| Prostate Cancer | 10-15 years |
| Colorectal Cancer | 10-15 years |
| Skin Cancer | 5-10 years |
| Leukemia | 1-5 years |
| Pancreatic Cancer | 5-10 years |
| Brain Cancer | 1-5 years |
The fact that we are seeing many types of cancer show up already as a result of having COVID is really quite alarming. I never would have guessed that wearing a respirator, improving ventilation and filtration, and getting a vaccination would help reduce the risk of multiple types of cancer would happen in my lifetime, but here we are.
