I made a technical mistake in the description of the combined 3D graph of the disease in the various countries. The graph represents the cumulative cases over time, not the new cases (incidence) each day. I had used one of my other country graphs as a template and forgot to change the language. Here’s a corrected version with one more day of data.

I’ve also been contemplating the weird pattern in incidence in the US prior to the last few days. I wonder if those might represent individuals who were abroad (the cruise ships for instance) and were counted as US cases. I honestly don’t know. Someone might be able to figure all that out but that’s just not worth the effort to me currently.

I’m finding a few other things of note in the recently published medical literature as well as I wind down for the evening.

I have often expressed how the case fatality rate (CFR) is likely to go down assuming that there are a number of cases that haven’t been counted because of the increase in the size of the denominator. Battegay et. al. argued that the CFRs might be overestimated or underestimated in different parts of the world.

I was also pleased to come across data in a single publication by Jieliang Chen describing both the CFR and the R0 (reproduction rate) for other diseases. This saved me some time hunting down something for each of them individually. It’s a good comparison and also supports why I was talking about those variables early on.

VirusCase Fatality Rate (%)R0
Avian H7N9 (2013)40<1
H1N1 (2009)0.031.2–1.6
H1N1 (1918)31.4–3.8
Measles Virus0.312–18
Ebola Virus701.5–2.5
Small Pox Virus175–7

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