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I’m going to build on my previous post. To start, I’ve plotted new cases of disease as a bar graph on the left y-axis. I have previously divided this data in to three sections, Emergence, Stay at Home, and Resurgence. These are where I expected the trend lines to be heading different directions based on when states were locking down or opening up. It should be noted that the opening up period will be continuing through most of June, so that is why we will see the trend line curving up as more states are contributing more cases in the future.
The blue line is the slope for the prior 21 days for that date. I have them set to zero by default for the first 21 days of the data. This is graphed on the right y-axis and a black line represents zero. The dotted red line is the 7-day averaged trend to remove the 7 day cycling of cases that has emerge from the spread of this virus.
To reiterate, the important part of that trend line is the distance from the black line. The further it is from the line, the more the cases are rising or falling in an exponential manner. When the line is above zero, we are seeing an overall increase in cases, and below, an overall decrease. It should be apparent we are starting our rise again.
I also expect there will be spikes in the numbers of cases over the coming weekend that will be visible in the data.
It will be roughly the same format for the states but I’m going go start the graph on March 15th, since that is when the rise in cases really began. That will allow a better view of the more important data. I had made some rough date estimates for when cases would start emerging in the data and when it might become obvious to the casual observer. I’ll mark those columns as follows:
Cases emerge: dark blue.
Visible in the data: yellow
In some cases, there these data won’t be visible in the data because I either didn’t have that data at the time, the state didn’t implement social controls, or we have not reached that point on the calendar yet. In cases the date is in the future, I’ve listed that next to the state. It also should be noted where there are few cases there isn’t enough data to reach meaningful conclusions because of small sample sizes. In some cases, the dark blue bar will be shifted a day to the right because of the lack of one for that day or too small to easily see.
California – varies by region
Connecticut – June 10
District of Columbia
Florida – varies by region
Hawaii – June 21
Illinois – this wasn’t available at the time, but I’ve since with what I’ve found now, I project June 21.
Kentucky – June 10
Maine – varies by region
Michigan – June 18
New Hampshire – June 21
New Jersey – June 26th
New Mexico – June 21 – varies by region
New York – June 18 – varies by region
North Carolina – June 12
Ohio – June 19
Oregon – varies by region
Pennsylvania – June 25 – varies by region
Virginia – July 1 – varies by region
Wisconsin – overturned by WI Supreme Court on May 13