This strays a little from my usual disease topics, but it’s of a public health concern. I wrote a major disaster exercise scenario about these problems a few years ago.
First, it’s probably useful to define food insecurity. This comes directly from HHS.
Food insecurity is defined as a household-level economic and social condition of limited or uncertain access to adequate food. In 2020, 13.8 million households were food insecure at some time during the year. Food insecurity does not necessarily cause hunger, but hunger is a possible outcome of food insecurity.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) divides food insecurity into the following 2 categories:
- Low food security: “Reports of reduced quality, variety, or desirability of diet. Little or no indication of reduced food intake.”
- Very low food security: “Reports of multiple indications of disrupted eating patterns and reduced food intake.”
It’s a much bigger problem in the US than most people realize and affects people in every jurisdiction. Use this link to drill down further.
The Colorado River Basin
Most people don’t realize how critical the Colorado River basin is to agriculture in the southwest US and how it even feeds into agriculture in southern California, including how many desert cities depend on it for fresh water. About 60% of the agricultural water is used for animal feed crops.
Lake Mead was created by the Hoover Dam. The dam produces power for about 1.3 million people in the region. Per Newsweek, “Recent forecasts suggest levels could drop near or below 1,035 feet above sea level by next spring, a key threshold for hydropower operations. At that point, only a subset of the dam’s turbines can operate efficiently, sharply reducing electricity generation.”
Lake Powell behind the Glen Canyon Dam is also severely depleted. “The dam was never meant to be operated at the extremely low water levels that Lake Powell is rapidly approaching. Doing so for extended periods of time could damage the pipes that move water through the dam.” The lake level is only 36 feet above the minimum height needed for power generation. This dam also provides power for millions.
That means that the power demand in the region will require the importation from other areas at a higher cost. This could drive up electricity prices across the US, leading to further erosion of family budgets for food as more needs to be spent on energy.
The Scale of the California Water Problem
The winter snowpack acts as a reservoir for both agriculture and hydroelectric energy through the year. This year has the potential to be very eye opening related to the impact of climate change.
The Sierra Nevada provides about 60% of the water in California which also generates about 15% of the electricity in the state. That and the Colorado River then provide a large proportion of the water for agriculture. 40% of all water in California—and 80% of consumed water—is used by irrigated agriculture. California produces two-thirds of the winter vegetables consumed in the US and half of the vegetables consumed year-around.
The Ogallala Aquifer
The Ogallala Aquifer is vital to agriculture in the central us, but it is rapidly getting depleted. Some regions draw water out at a rate of up to two feet per year, while natural seepage only replenishes about half an inch per year.
90% of the water from the aquifer is used for agriculture, it provides about 30% of the groundwater in the US and produces about 20% of the wheat and corn in the US. The southern part is expected to be depleted within 20-30 years.
Undocumented Immigrant Contribution to Food Security
75% of California’s farmworkers are undocumented and across the US represent about 40-42% of agricultural workers. 70 percent of workers stopped reporting to work following Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions. A 20–40% reduction in labor supply leads to a 10–25% decline in output for labor-intensive crops, which projects a 5–12% increase in produce prices.
ICE actions don’t just impact produce. Undocumented immigrants are estimated to make up about 25-30% of the meatpacking workforce. In one facility, “in a matter of weeks, production…plummeted by almost 70 percent. Most of the work force was gone.”
Fertilizer
Of course there is much more to crop production, whether it is for human or livestock production, than just water. Good soil and fertilizer are needed. The US is highly dependent on foreign materials for fertilizer. 90% of imported potassium in the US originates in Canada. Canada and Russia are both major suppliers of nitrogen as well. A trade war with Canada does nothing but hurt Americans.
Screwworm
Cattle populations were already declining in the US, which is part of the reason of the increase in prices of beef.
That’s basic supply and demand economics.
Oddly enough, the northward spread of the Lone Star tick might reduce demand. A bite from the tick can lead to an allergy called Alpha-gal syndrome, which can lead to severe anaphylaxis 2-6 hours after consuming meat.
The screwworm problem is going to have drastic impacts on the beef industry in Texas, and if the organism spreads to other areas as well. This will only increase “the price of beef—which has gone up roughly 75% since December 2020—could continue to rise.”
This lies completely in the hands of Trump and Musk after DOGE cut funding for monitoring and abatement, with additional cuts to USAID, which did the surveillance of cattle crossing the border.
H5N1
Even if H5N1 doesn’t make the jump to humans, it’s still circulating and evolving. People have probably already forgotten about its impact on the price of eggs.
The price of poultry has also taken a big hit and hasn’t rebounded.
African Swine Fever
This hasn’t impacted the US yet, but if it arrives on our shores, pork prices will skyrocket as well. China lost about 40% of their pigs in 2019 when it arrived on their shores. US prices for pork are already high.
Strait of Hormuz
The other piece that is going to have a devastating impact on the economy is the war in Iran started by this administration without Congressional authority.
About 20% of the crude oil in the world comes out of the Persian Gulf. The global economic impact of that supply chain being disrupted should be obvious. What most people don’t grasp is that the economic impacts have not yet hit the US in full measure.
It takes about 40-50 days for tankers to travel from that region of the world to the US. Hence, there was a supply chain already in motion when the strait was closed at the beginning of March. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the US had 415 million barrels of oil at that time. That was enough to offset another 50-55 days of crude imports. June 10th is about 100 days, just in time for the higher demand season in the summer, further driving up oil prices. The real sticker shock at the pump and from increased prices of goods that have higher transportation costs will hit consumers hard when the economy is already getting challenging for many people.
Water Wars
I’ve stated before that water plays a big role in the development of war. There are many recent examples of how it has played a role.
- Syria (2011) — the worst drought in 900 years drove 1.5 million rural farmers into cities, destabilizing the Assad regime’s social contract.
- Darfur — desertification + water scarcity intensified ethnic conflict.
- Israel–Palestine — water rights in the Jordan River basin are a core strategic issue.
- India–Pakistan — the Indus Waters Treaty is one of the most important conflict‑prevention mechanisms in the world.
- Turkey–Syria–Iraq — the Tigris/Euphrates dams are geopolitical leverage.
- Ethiopia–Egypt–Sudan — the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a flashpoint.
There are many reasons water accelerates conflict.
- Crop failures → food insecurity → migration → political unrest
- Livestock loss → economic collapse in rural regions
- Urbanization surges → unemployment → instability
- Competition between ethnic groups for shrinking resources
- State legitimacy crises when governments can’t provide water
- Militias and extremist groups exploiting scarcity
A Repeat
Just like at the start of the COVID pandemic, I sit here yelling that we have storms on the horizon and nobody pays any attention. Does anyone have the ability to put the pieces of the big picture together any more?
