The global situation does not look good. We reached a new threshold today of 5000 new cases in a single day. It may look like that has happened previously, but the two times in early February were likely due to delayed reporting and the big spike in mid month was to a change in how China was diagnosing cases.

Italy is not promising either. I’ve dramatically emphasized the case fatality rate line. I am suspecting that this is climbing because they have run out of medical resources, which I expect to be the case in many locations eventually. France, Germany, and Spain each have about 1500 cases each now as well.

We can learn some very important lessons from China and South Korea. Quarantine works. China took the brute force approach, while South Korea is using a high-tech approach using smartphones. Compared to what is happening in other countries, quarantine, banning events, and closing schools seems like the correct route to go.

There is no gentle way to put this. The longer we wait to take similar measures, the worse off we will be and the more deaths we will incur in the US. It’s time to put these same measures in place for the reasons I illustrated yesterday in my opinion. I expect to see that happen in Washington state very soon.

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