I’ve explained how policy changes take at least three weeks to show changes in cases and deaths. This map shows when different locations enacted those types of responses.
By my earlier argument, we should see improvement in the US totals starting to emerge between April 12th and May 3rd. Of course, these have an additive impact the longer they are in place. Without these measures, the epidemic curve would have continued upward and been too big for the image below by late April.
Now, however, many locations are going to go right back to square one, but realistically, it will be further back than square one, because now there will be many more cases spreading to the population and the healthcare problems will be more challenging as there are less supplies, medication, and staff available.
I’ve been warning since April that things were going to take a turn for the worse in June. We have excelled at shooting ourselves in the foot.