It might be worth looking at data from states that have ended stay at home orders to see if it has any impact on new case trends. Only three states have a sufficient number of cases and population at this point for review. My commentary for each is in red text. The rest of narrative about each state is from CNN and was updated on May 20th. The three week post opening point is the divider between the blue and gray portions of the graph. Trend lines are the dotted lines within each.
Colorado
Colorado also has some interesting results from PCR versus serology testing. Clearly the testing impacts some of the numbers of cases. More interesting is that such a high percentage of serology tests are negative. I wonder if people think that they had been infected really weren’t. I’ve heard a lot of people claiming that they “probably” had this back in January or late last year. I’ve told them it’s just about impossible if they were in the US during that time frame.
The state’s “safer-at-home” order took effect April 27 and is in effect until May 27.
Retail businesses can reopen with curbside delivery and elective medical procedures can resume. Businesses such as personal training and dog grooming can reopen with social distancing.
Retail businesses began to reopen May 1, while people were permitted to return to non-essential office work May 4.
On May 11, Gov. Jared Polis said state park campsites would be available for rental beginning May 12.
A decision on restaurant reopenings will happen May 25, the governor said.
Georgia
Georgia has a 14 day lag in collecting data. However, in their trend forecast, they are expecting an even steeper rise in the second graph.
Gov. Brian Kemp started to ease restrictions April 24.
Gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, hair and nail salons, estheticians and massage therapists were able to reopen April 24, with certain rules. Theaters and restaurants were allowed to reopen April 27, also with caveats.
The caveats include social distancing and screening employees for illness.
Bars, nightclubs and music venues will remain closed, for now.
A shelter-in-place order for “medically fragile and elderly Georgians” is in place through June 12.
The shelter-in-place order for other Georgians ended April 30.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma has something very interesting. When looking at the data for the whole state, it looks like easing up on the stay at home orders. However, when limiting it to the data set of the metropolitan counties in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa areas, a different pattern emerges. There are 14 of the 77 counties in the state in this view. This is pretty good anecdotal evidence that population density makes a big difference.
Also, I realize that the graphs are a bit different and the midpoint is two days later in the bottom one. It’s a function of pulling state data in batches to match the change date and I didn’t think of this view until I had changed some of the formulas in my data table. I think it’s safe to assume that the trend lines are still representative of the data.
Gov. Kevin Stitt allowed some businesses to reopen beginning April 24.
Among them are personal care businesses, restaurants, dining rooms, movie theaters, sporting venues and gyms if they maintain “strict social distancing and sanitation protocols.”
Bars, however, will still be closed.
Conclusion
Science is funny about conclusions. I think from these examples, there is a common trend, however, like many analyses, further data is needed. That will come when more states have 4-5 weeks of data after ending stay at home orders.
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