The Decreasing Death Illusion

Many people think that the pandemic is declining in the US because of the decrease in death numbers. That’s simply not the case. Those declines have to do with the social restrictions that were put into place.

The red line is the same as the blue line with the dots on the other graphs I have done recently. Each of those points represented a 21 day retroactive slope calculation representing case incidence for that day. The slope scale is on the right axis. This is essentially a derivative approach from calculus. It is shifted to the right 20 days to make it easier to understand the relationship between the two on the graph..

The gray columns are new deaths (the death incidence) for that day and are measured on the left axis. The black line is a seven day moving average of deaths.

When the red line is above zero (the green line), it predicts that deaths will be going up on average. The further further it is above zero, the faster the rise in deaths. When it goes below zero, deaths should be dropping on average.

The reason for the decline in deaths has everything to do with the social restrictions that were put into place. This derivative measure also predicts average deaths to start going up, which they have. Look at the big spike in deaths on June 25th.

We will be seeing very high numbers of deaths the next few days.

Update: Someone let me know that New Jersey had done some reclassification, which accounts for the big spike on June 25. I filtered NJ out and the graph became even more telling.

The important part is that deaths should be in their downward weekly trend. It will be telling if the normal valley that should occur is less deep or eliminated over the next few days.

2 responses to “The Decreasing Death Illusion

  1. Barbara Wierzbicki

    I started analyzing figures when “virus panic” first started. I gave up when I realized that the numbers were unreliable. I appreciate your mathematical effort to make predictions, however it was a mathematical model that started the fesr and the panic. As you know, that model was wrong. Admission of that failure has yet to come from the medical experts who accepted and promoted it. Its time to stop the fear mongering and start living again. Our immune system is protecting us.

    • It’s not wrong. Deaths will start climbing in the US today.

      Immune systems do not protect people from this virus. That’s why it is called a “novel” virus. Until infected, nobody had antibodies.

Leave a Reply