When the Valley Becomes a Mountain

There is something very disturbing in the data today, but it’s not unexpected if you understand exponential growth during a pandemic.

Since the first part of the exponential growth of COVID-19 in the middle of March, one very evident cycle that lasts just slightly over seven days has emerged with peaks and valleys. These are most evident in the derivative function I created that is the dark blue line.

On the graph, I’ve colored the four data points red for the past five weeks where we were in the downward part of that cycle – until this week. What should have been the valley is now a peak. That means that over the next three days the number of cases is going to explode.

We are in deep trouble.


Leave a Reply