Yesterday I did a rough estimate of the number of deaths in the US using worst case, middle, and best case scenarios. I think what might be more descriptive is to paint the picture for how this will unfold in different age groups.
For this analysis, I used the estimates of the US population for 2018 by the US Census Bureau and the case fatality rates (CFR) for 10-year age strata in China as reported by the China CDC. The overall CFR falls between my best case and midpoint projections yesterday.
| Age, years | Deaths |
| 0–9 | – insufficient data |
| 10–19 | 17,135 |
| 20–29 | 18,015 |
| 30–39 | 17,438 |
| 40–49 | 32,528 |
| 50–59 | 110,490 |
| 60–69 | 271,945 |
| 70–79 | 365,481 |
| ≥80 | 369,209 |
| Total | 1,202,243 |
- While this does obviously impact older populations much worse than other groups, it’s important to note that tragedy is going to be felt at every level.
- This is a good illustration of why I project nursing homes, assisted living facilities, and retirement communities are going to face a devastating event.
The most important thing though is to recognize that your behavior is going to impact the lives of others and those they love. If you get this virus, you can be spreading it for days before you show any signs or symptoms. I can’t express enough how important it is to STAY HOME UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. Don’t go to any gatherings. That means church, school, meetup groups…everything. It’s the only way we are going to win against this.
Shortly after writing this, I received a video from a friend. It’s in Italian, but it’s very easy to understand what is happening. The narrator is comparing the obituaries in his newspaper, the first on February 9th, “one page”, the second on March 13th, “ten pages.” If that doesn’t wake you up, I don’t know what will.
