I had done a little calculating in my head last night and was very disturbed. I wasn’t even sure if I should talk about it, but I decided I would sleep on it and run the numbers more carefully this morning. I had the same result.
I used a case attack rate of 20% (that’s the percentage of the population that will get infected). To put that number in perspective, the 1918 Spanish Flu is estimated to have infected 20-30% of the world population.
Next, I used the case fatality rates I’ve been tracking for weeks. For the low end, I used the numbers from South Korea, for the midrange the global average, and at the high end, Italy.
Without aggressive social interventions (school closings, banning any kind of mass gatherings, mandatory quarantine of entire cities, here’s the the number of deaths I’m projecting in the US using a very gross analysis of the data. I’ll be working through new models breaking this down by age categories this weekend.
In context, a normal influenza season in the US, we have about 36,000 deaths each year. Do you understand why this is different than influenza?
I don’t know what else to do to get people to take this seriously. We are in trouble and are way behind the eight ball in the US.
Although the calculations are not as straightforward as they seem (there are many variables) I believe you’re right. My calculations showed a 1 million mortality number in the US. So much of this is due to federal decision making. I wrote a post about it a couple of days ago if you’d like to check it out.
I absolutely agree. I simply wanted to get the first rough one out as a means to wake people up to how serious this is.. I’m going to keep developing it as I get more ideas how to refine it.
Sounds good. You’re right, many aren’t taking it seriously and need to wake up.
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