Currently we have just over 100,000 confirmed cases in the US and just under 600,000 globally.

My forecast:

1 week: 300,000 in the US

2 weeks: 700,000 in the US

Think about that. We will have more cases in the US in two weeks than there have been in the entire world currently. I hope that’s a pretty sobering figure to you.

My R2 for my model of fit is 0.9994. Unless we take some drastic action, we are in BIG trouble in the US. It only gets worse from there.


Addendum: It should be noted that forecasts further in the future have wider margins of error. That’s why you see the circles in hurricane forecasts get bigger. I’m hoping that we do better at social distancing than we have to bring these numbers down some, but that will take everyone working together to make an impact.

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