The China Problem

I had written back on March 14th that something kept gnawing at me about the case fatality rate in China. It didn’t make sense that it had continued to climb while the incidence of disease appeared to fall. I had thrown out one possible hypothesis, but hoped it wasn’t the one that I didn’t write about that I found much more concerning. Here’s how the data looks today.

Ont thing that seems really suspicious to me is that the CFR got really smooth over the last two weeks. Data just doesn’t behave in that way. That got me wondering even more about how transparent the data from China has been.

Now I suspect that it may have been good up until the middle of February, but after that is anyone’s guess. I also have commented previously that perhaps the CFR was lower because of under-reported mild or asymptomatic cases. Now it looks like the CFR may be higher because of the failure to report deaths as given by this article from Radio Free Asia.

Yikes. This may even be worse than I expected.


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