It’s been a long time since I looked at the COVID-19 data. I had too much going on in my personal life to deal with and needed a break.
I’ve pulled down the entire global data set from Johns Hopkins again and am starting from scratch with graphs. They should look relatively familiar but I’ll explain them again.
The bar graph portion represents the number of new cases (light blue), recoveries (green), and deaths (black). The black line is the moving case fatality rate (CFR) and the red line is the trend of the case fatality rate. As that trend line becomes more horizontal, we will have a good estimate of the CFR. I’ve also made some of the bars partially transparent so the shorter ones can be seen even though they are superimposed on each other.
While looking through these, keep in mind that the scales are going to change for the bar graph portion. Also, these may look a little different from my previous graphs but that has to do with changes that were made in the data set. Just ignore wide swings in the data an pay attention to trends.
I will also be breaking these down by states/provinces except for the US in this post. There must be at least 1000 confirmed cases for inclusion. The US data in this particular data set does not have that resolution. I’ll be working on a US one separately.
Anyone who says that things are improving is grossly mistaken or spinning the facts. One particularly interesting area to watch will be Sweden, which decided not to go any kind of restrictions and let the disease takes its course. I think that will quickly play out to have been a massive mistake.