Right click to expand the graphs.
These use the same approach as prior posts.
I’ve created three graphs for each location. The difference between them is that one graphs new cases and associated trend lines, the other graphs new deaths and associated trend lines, and the third is just the slopes of cases and deaths and their trend lines together.
Deaths lag about a week behind cases. If there is an increase in cases due to more testing, then there should be apparent differences between the 21 day incident slope graph and it’s associated trend line between the cases and deaths. The third graph is to make it easier to compare the two. If they are roughly the same, that is an indicator that there is true disease and not increased testing to account for increased cases. This will be more difficult to assess when there are fewer cases due to the small sample sizes. The close match in the US overall though is a good indicator that testing is only a small fraction of what is currently happening.
“10 states are seeing their highest average of daily new Covid-19 cases since the pandemic started.” Those states are highlighted below.
US
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Just looking at these visually, do death rates lag the « cases » curve by about 2-3 weeks? And lessening in fatality rates? (Are we getting smarter about treating patients)
It is a 5-7 day delay. That can be seen best on the national Case to Death Comparison graph.
The reason the death graph is slightly lower on the comparison is because of the different zeros on the y-axes. The dotted trend lines are getting closer together, again, so I suspect that we haven’t improved treatment much. The divergence in May might represent more testing, but it doesn’t seem to be a factor in current cases.