II thought I would provide what I see nationally with case data for the next 10 days: 3 days of growth, 4 days of remaining relatively stable, two days of growth, and one day of drop. Obviously, the further from the present the harder this is to do.
I thought I would make a dashboard view for the US.
The second column (Current) is my categorical assessment of what is happening in the state currently.
The third column (Sustained/Forecast) is colored using the same categories of the second column, but may also have a date which indicates when I either would have expected sustained changes or when I do in the future using the first of four days over a certain threshold.
The fourth column (Expected Increase Start) is the expected date for increases in cases to be noted within the state.
The fifth column (Community Spread) is when I believe that community spread started accounting for the current status of the state.
The sixth column (Hosp) is when I expect(ed) hospitals will start seeing patients increases. This can lag by 1-2 weeks.
The final column (Deaths) is when the mortality figures should start. This can lag by 1-2 weeks.
Some states are highlighted yellow. These are ones where I used a little more judgement or expect them to be influenced by something much bigger, so there is more interpretation of the raw data.
There is a pattern in the data that has much bigger impacts on the daily incidence of the disease than the seven day cycles that are easy to see. There is a valley to one of these coming up on 7/6-7/7, making it appear that things are better nationwide for a few days on either side as it pulls cases downward. The next peak for it will be on 7/31-8/1 when it will pull cases up.
I’m still trying to account for what drives this cycle it but it has a pattern of lengthening by four days per complete cycle so far. My thinking is that it might have to do to irregular pay schedules such as Social Security checks or those who get paid once or twice per month. Those differences could have set off this unusual cycle as those who are spending money and socializing out of sync with the two week payment cycle of other workers. I’m convinced that the weekly cycle that is easily seen in the data is the result of social activities on the weekends.
Of course, this dashboard in no way indicates that you will be safe interacting with people. It’s only meant as a guide to where problems currently lie and where they will be escalating, especially when it comes ot impacts on the healthcare system.
I won’t be doing any social activities over this holiday weekend. I would suggest that you think twice before doing so.