CFR leveling?

from February 16, 2020

I am obviously getting concerned that the case fatality rate is beginning to level off at just above 2%. I’m still hoping that we see an increase in the number of survivors with minor illness that haven’t been captured in the data that would lower this number.

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There are also two other things that could mute the effect of this outbreak. First, Inovio Pharmaceuticals in San Diego has developed a vaccine against COVID-19. It obviously still has a lot of testing needed, but it is a hopeful development.

Second, there is also the possibility that the virus isn’t stable in hot, humid weather. As we get into summer in the northern hemisphere, that could be really good news in reducing transmission.

Disclaimer: This commentary is my own interpretation and does not represent the analysis by the government or my employer. The data is from the Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

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