Christmas of Sadness

Today was the best view of what’s coming in the US since before Thanksgiving. Most of the data should be in from the Thanksgiving weekend now. Unfortunately, the first and second derivatives both suggest that we are about to see the fastest rate of growth in cases since this began late next week. The rapid climb of the positivity rate also supports this.

I doubt that will be readily available in the data though due to home testing and labs becoming backlogged again. This is primarily delta. If omicron is as virulent or if it evades vaccine, we are in for a world of hurt. If either of those are true, we should be treating omicron as an entirely new pandemic superimposed on the current one. Maybe this will finally awaken those who have been in denial, but I have my doubts.

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