Monitoring BA.2 in the US

Currently there is a technical problem with a platform I started using to automate moving graphs on this site but their support team is looking into it. In the meantime, I am going to manually post state case and variant charts. It’s my take that BA.2 is going to start another surge in the US in April. This might help individuals get an idea of when that could occur in their particular state.

My big fear is that a combination of the notion that the pandemic is over, inadequate testing and at home testing leading to insufficient data, and the lack of mask use by the public could combine to create another surge beyond what most people expect. Influenza has been climbing in the US, which started a few weeks later than usual, which closely correlates to the lifting of mask use across much of the US.

We are simply not collecting enough data or reporting it frequently enough to have a clear picture of what is really happening. Some states have moved to reporting case data weekly. During a time of exponential growth, a delay of a week can cause considerably more spread without the availability of data to make policy decisions. COVID cases are starting to climb in the US and that will become even more apparent as the weekend data becomes available this evening.

We are steaming full ahead through iceberg filled waters while in dense fog. I’m afraid that this won’t end well..