Yesterday I showed the impacts that could be expected in the US by age overall. I’ve taken US census data on a deeper dive and broken that down to the state level so people could see what that could mean for each state if drastic measures are not in place.
Something interesting jumped out at me as I looked at the table. It’s pretty obvious that states that are thought of as retirement destinations are going to have proportionally bigger problems.
These numbers are using the assumptions of an attack rate of 20% and the case fatality rates for age groups reported by the China CDC.
| 10-19 | 20-29 | 30-39 | 40-49 | 50-59 | 60-69 | 70-79 | 80+ | |
| AL | 261 | 260 | 240 | 486 | 1,687 | 4,243 | 6,017 | 5,438 |
| AK | 39 | 45 | 43 | 69 | 245 | 600 | 560 | 465 |
| AZ | 386 | 401 | 367 | 691 | 2,208 | 5,959 | 9,331 | 8,426 |
| AR | 165 | 161 | 152 | 289 | 995 | 2,522 | 3,707 | 3,364 |
| CA | 2,081 | 2,331 | 2,273 | 4,056 | 12,957 | 29,902 | 38,492 | 41,586 |
| CO | 293 | 329 | 340 | 594 | 1,832 | 4,559 | 5,606 | 5,129 |
| CT | 187 | 185 | 176 | 356 | 1,353 | 3,166 | 4,295 | 4,666 |
| DE | 49 | 50 | 48 | 89 | 348 | 918 | 1,350 | 1,080 |
| DC | 28 | 54 | 58 | 65 | 191 | 425 | 627 | 611 |
| FL | 991 | 1,070 | 1,065 | 2,091 | 7,383 | 19,426 | 31,193 | 33,094 |
| GA | 597 | 586 | 564 | 1,120 | 3,513 | 8,001 | 10,553 | 8,874 |
| HI | 65 | 78 | 77 | 138 | 447 | 1,285 | 1,699 | 2,092 |
| ID | 103 | 93 | 89 | 169 | 547 | 1,439 | 1,994 | 1,726 |
| IL | 670 | 695 | 686 | 1,290 | 4,360 | 10,486 | 13,713 | 14,544 |
| IN | 364 | 369 | 341 | 646 | 2,268 | 5,592 | 7,244 | 7,354 |
| IA | 174 | 169 | 161 | 285 | 1,043 | 2,712 | 3,575 | 4,249 |
| KS | 165 | 161 | 148 | 274 | 938 | 2,455 | 2,965 | 3,540 |
| KY | 230 | 244 | 221 | 446 | 1,546 | 3,887 | 5,093 | 4,989 |
| LA | 250 | 255 | 254 | 441 | 1,539 | 3,968 | 4,982 | 4,657 |
| ME | 60 | 61 | 64 | 127 | 522 | 1,445 | 1,878 | 1,962 |
| MD | 306 | 319 | 329 | 612 | 2,185 | 5,018 | 6,600 | 6,377 |
| MA | 340 | 400 | 368 | 680 | 2,518 | 5,878 | 7,791 | 8,431 |
| MI | 512 | 552 | 482 | 955 | 3,540 | 9,159 | 11,924 | 11,963 |
| MN | 291 | 294 | 307 | 534 | 1,961 | 4,690 | 5,928 | 6,574 |
| MS | 174 | 161 | 153 | 287 | 967 | 2,507 | 3,500 | 2,964 |
| MO | 317 | 331 | 316 | 576 | 2,086 | 5,321 | 7,364 | 7,372 |
| MT | 54 | 55 | 54 | 95 | 346 | 1,069 | 1,430 | 1,248 |
| NE | 108 | 104 | 104 | 179 | 600 | 1,588 | 1,956 | 2,374 |
| NV | 154 | 163 | 169 | 321 | 999 | 2,483 | 3,513 | 2,874 |
| NH | 67 | 68 | 65 | 132 | 552 | 1,324 | 1,700 | 1,673 |
| NJ | 452 | 454 | 462 | 931 | 3,296 | 7,445 | 9,955 | 10,835 |
| NM | 118 | 112 | 110 | 191 | 670 | 1,862 | 2,604 | 2,466 |
| NY | 943 | 1,110 | 1,064 | 1,923 | 6,884 | 16,323 | 22,179 | 24,484 |
| NC | 553 | 562 | 530 | 1,075 | 3,534 | 8,804 | 12,222 | 10,859 |
| ND | 37 | 50 | 42 | 65 | 235 | 601 | 722 | 995 |
| OH | 610 | 621 | 582 | 1,126 | 4,088 | 10,472 | 13,731 | 14,207 |
| OK | 220 | 219 | 210 | 369 | 1,259 | 3,149 | 4,352 | 4,388 |
| OR | 202 | 226 | 232 | 430 | 1,345 | 3,861 | 5,069 | 4,830 |
| PA | 637 | 672 | 641 | 1,220 | 4,609 | 11,762 | 15,819 | 17,903 |
| PR | 156 | 172 | 144 | 333 | 1,121 | 2,873 | 4,846 | 5,053 |
| RI | 52 | 61 | 54 | 99 | 382 | 949 | 1,247 | 1,429 |
| SC | 266 | 269 | 253 | 498 | 1,742 | 4,546 | 6,619 | 5,424 |
| SD | 49 | 48 | 44 | 77 | 284 | 777 | 957 | 1,114 |
| TN | 350 | 369 | 346 | 687 | 2,297 | 5,849 | 7,915 | 7,207 |
| TX | 1,696 | 1,647 | 1,634 | 2,975 | 8,855 | 19,949 | 25,128 | 23,616 |
| UT | 208 | 203 | 178 | 307 | 776 | 1,933 | 2,411 | 2,366 |
| VT | 30 | 33 | 29 | 57 | 232 | 664 | 871 | 778 |
| VA | 440 | 466 | 465 | 874 | 2,948 | 7,014 | 9,125 | 8,961 |
| WA | 368 | 425 | 442 | 752 | 2,458 | 6,254 | 8,266 | 7,434 |
| WV | 88 | 89 | 83 | 182 | 638 | 1,864 | 2,436 | 2,406 |
| WI | 301 | 307 | 296 | 545 | 2,098 | 5,284 | 6,615 | 7,232 |
| WY | 33 | 29 | 31 | 53 | 187 | 556 | 657 | 581 |
